CP Softball — Stats Deep Dive, July 3 Edition

Team Temperature

Who's catching momentum: change in each team's adjusted average since the previous edition (June 12 → July 3). The full week-over-week report is in What Changed.

The Standings

What all this hitting is actually for — from cpsoftball.com/standings.php, snapshotted July 6. Batting explains most of winning (r = +0.75 between team average and win percentage) — which makes the teams that break the pattern the most interesting rows on the board.

• The Fellowship of the Swing (Stafford's team) is the league's great overachiever: first place at 7-1 with only the fifth-best bats — and those bats have been cooling (.555 over the last three weeks). A +20 differential across eight games means they win close and win anyway. Whatever they're doing, the batting ledger can't see it.
• The Diamonds and Dirtbags (Jeremy's team) are the opposite mystery: the best batting average in the league, a 5-3 record, and a negative point differential (−7). They out-hit everybody and still get outscored — this page only sees bats, and their problem isn't bats.
• Youre Saying Theres A Chance (Horatio's team) is the on-paper juggernaut: 3rd place, 3rd-best bats, the league's best differential (+58), and the hottest team of the period (.632). If anyone catches the Fellowship, the smart money is here.
• The Pliggas (Claude's team) have the emptiest average in the league: a respectable .570 on the most team at-bats (314), converted into the fewest points per plate trip of any team (25 per 100 ABs, league range 25–39). Lots of contact, not much scoreboard.
• The Danites (Ephraims Daniel's team) are winless, not hopeless: 0-8, yet they've outscored three of the teams above them (78 PF). They lose by about four a game — the draft-day F is playing out as a season-long F, but the margin says the record overstates the gap.
• The Slamma Jammas (Boyds Daniel's team) are the standings' lagging indicator: 3-5 with the hottest bat surge in the league (+.120 since June 12). If the temperature board means anything, that record has upside.
• The Playas (Michael's team) again: fewest at-bats in the league (186), fewest points scored (65), 10th place. Attendance remains their real opponent.

League at a Glance

A perfectly balanced league: 12 teams, 12 players each, drafted in 12 rounds.

The Draft Board — Round-by-Round Averages

Average adjusted average by draft round. Bars run on a 0–1.000 scale (an average is a rate). The decline is nearly monotonic — whoever is scouting this league knows what they're doing.

• The round 6 bump. Round 6 (.612) out-hits rounds 4 and 5 and essentially ties round 3. Captains apparently doze off in the middle rounds — that's where Wesley Williams (.786), Noah Dockstader (.783), and Seth Timpson (.750) were all still on the board.
• Playing time follows draft capital. First-rounders average 27 at-bats; 11th-rounders average 16. Some of the late-round "decline" is also just fewer chances.
• Round 11 beats rounds 10 and 12. Probably noise — or probably Maureen Williams (see the Sleeper File).
• Round 1 is the safest bet in the league: the tightest spread of any round (σ = .079). Even the worst first-rounder hit .577 — above the league median.

The Sleeper File

Everyone drafted in round 6 or later who hit like a top-third player (15+ at-bats to filter out hot streaks). League rank is out of 144 — five of these people finished in the top 30 overall.

Tier 1 — Mid-round larceny (rounds 6–7)

Tier 2 — Deep cuts (rounds 8–12)

Outliers, Round by Round

The single biggest over- and underperformer versus round expectation in every round (minimum 10 ABs). Read this as the best and worst pick of each round. Round average shown in parentheses.

• Cuervo Timpson (R2, .842) — the league MVP wasn't even a first-round pick. His .842 on a full 38 at-bats is the best line in the league, full stop.
• Heber Williams (R1, .577) — the only first-rounder who genuinely fell. Every other round-1 pick hit .600+; the Danites' season never recovered (see the report card).
• Lizzy Horsley (R6, .333) — the most painful bust because it came with real playing time (27 ABs). A sixth-round slot in the sleeper-goldmine round, spent.
• Brenda Naylor (R8) and Layla Hammon (R10) — statistically tied for the hardest fall (−2.22 z each), hitting .100 and .091.

Team-by-Team Breakdown

Sorted by team adjusted average. ".500 Club" = players on the roster hitting .500 or better.

One thing that jumps out about every team

• Diamonds and Dirtbags (Jeremy's team) — Best team average in the league, and the most boom-or-bust roster (highest player spread, σ = .199). Ten hitters above .500 papers over the busts.
• Lefty Looseys (Sefton's team) — The deepest lineup in the league: 11 of 12 players above .500. Nobody else has more than ten. Also collected three of the sleeper file's names (Seth Timpson, Riley Barlow, Jayla Dockstader).
• Youre Saying Theres A Chance (Horatio's team) — 3 caused outs all season. Next-best team has 5; the Good Guys (Gideon's team) have 15. Pure plate discipline is worth about a podium spot.
• Good Guys (Gideon's team) — The league's great tragedy: best raw hitting in the league (.639), worst caused-out total (15). The penalty drops them from 1st to 4th. Benjiman Barlow alone caused 4.
• Fellowship of the Swing (Stafford's team) — Steady and anonymous: solid 5th with the lowest team ceiling among contenders (best bat "only" .708). Death by a dozen good-not-great hitters.
• Pure Breads (Caleb's team) — Found Anson Johnson (R9, .682) and Ryan Hammon (R5, .714) late, which is the only reason a middling draft class landed 6th.
• Pliggas (Claude's team) — Iron-horse team: league-most 314 at-bats, and they walked away with the draft's biggest steal (Sean Hammon, R12).
• Stars and Strikes (Seth's team) — Own the MVP (Cuervo, .842) and only six .500 hitters. The most top-heavy contender in the league.
• Slamma Jammas (Boyds Daniel's team) — A team of extremes: the round-11 steal of the draft (Maureen Williams) and the league's worst bust (Layla Hammon, .091, R10) on the same bench.
• Danites (Ephraims Daniel's team) — Landed a top-10 league bat in round 6 (Noah Dockstader) and it still couldn't offset the only failed first-round pick in the league (Heber Williams, .577).
• Ellites (Elliot's team) — Lowest ceiling in the league: no hitter above .684. Eight players cleared .500 and it still wasn't enough — no stars, no chance.
• Playas (Michael's team) — Their real opponent is attendance: 186 team at-bats vs. the Pliggas' 314. Ironically the most consistent roster in the league (σ = .120) — consistently short-handed.

Draft-Day Report Card

Total z across the whole roster — did each team's twelve picks over- or underperform what their draft slots predicted? This is the closest thing the league has to a "front office" grade.

The Draft Board, Second Look

Averages only tell you what a round returns. This table is about what a round risks: how wide the outcomes spread, how often a pick busts, how sloppy the plate discipline gets, and where each round's players would actually go if the league re-drafted on today's numbers.

• Risk doubles by round 8. The spread of outcomes goes from σ = .079 in round 1 to .170 in round 8 — the widest of any round. Round 1 is the league's only bust-proof round: 12-for-12 above .500, zero players below the league median.
• Rounds 2 and 3 were the most overpriced. On a re-draft, the average second-rounder would go in round 4.5 and the average third-rounder in round 5.2 — the steepest slot-to-value drops on the board.
• Round 6 keeps showing off. Its players re-draft at 4.8 — ahead of rounds 3, 4, and 5 — and 9 of its 12 keep their slot or better, the best genuine retention of any round (11 and 12 only "retain" because there's nowhere left to fall). It's also one of the cleanest rounds at the plate (1.9 CO per 100 AB).
• Discipline decays with draft position. Caused outs climb from 0.9 per 100 at-bats in round 1 to 5.9 in round 9 — the sloppiest round in the league, with 14 caused outs against round 1's three.

Who mined which rounds

Each team's draft grade, split into the front half (rounds 1–6) and the back half (rounds 7–12). This is where the report card's totals come from — and the halves tell very different stories.

The Missing Pages

Three things this report has never covered: who's giving averages back at the plate, who's carrying the heaviest workloads, and what the league actually looks like as a distribution.

The caused-out ledger

• The honor roll is the real story: 78 of 144 players have never caused an out. The league total is just 98 — but they're concentrated: these nine players account for 28 of them.
• Three of the nine are Good Guys (Gideon's team) (Benjiman Barlow, Abe Dockstader, Douglas Hammon) — 10 of the team's league-worst 15 caused outs, the discipline tax that keeps dropping them from 1st to 4th.
• A caused out erases a hit. Roy Hammon is a .500 hitter who would be at .600 without his three — a full bust-to-borderline-sleeper swing from discipline alone.

The iron horses

• Five of the eight iron horses are Timpsons. Whatever else the Dynasty Ledger says, nobody shows up to more games.
• Taylor Timpson is the league's most-trusted bat: 50 at-bats — five more than anyone else — at a .680 clip.
• The MVP line survives volume. Cuervo's .842 and Claude's .791 come on 38 and 43 at-bats. No small-sample asterisk applies; those averages are real.

The shape of the league

• In this league, .500 is below average. 95 of 144 players are at .500 or better and the median is .556 — a .500 hitter sits at the 34th percentile.
• The tail drags the mean. The average player hits .537, below the median — the league's strugglers pull harder than its stars. But the league as a whole hits .562, because the best hitters also take the most at-bats.
• The elite tail is thin: three players in the .800s (Cuervo .842, Sefton .818, Gideon .811), and — as of this edition — nobody in the .900s.

What Changed: June 12 → July 3

Everything in this section compares the current numbers against the June 12 edition, three weeks earlier. "Period" stats count only what happened between the two snapshots: (new hits − new caused outs) ÷ new at-bats. The team-by-team temperature board sits at the top of the page.

Hottest bats of the period

Coldest bats of the period

Biggest season-average movers

Change in full-season adjusted average between editions, for players with a real sample at both checkpoints (8+ ABs on June 12, 15+ now).

• Sean Hammon is still the steal of the draft (+2.06 z, Section 3) — but he's cooled from "top-ten bat in the league" (.769 on June 12) to "very good final-rounder" (.609).
• The Pliggas (Claude's team) own three of the six biggest fallers — Avery, Sean, and Brigham Hammon (Lexi Timpson is their consolation riser). That's the whole story of their team slide — see the temperature board at the top of the page.
• Leroy Dutson climbed out of the basement: he was round 8's designated bust on June 12 (.182); he's hit .778 since and now sits at a respectable .450.

Playing time

• Taylor Timpson +30 at-bats (20 → 50), the biggest jump in the league — and he hit .767 on the new ones. Trust, earned.
• Levi Knudson +26 at-bats (6 → 32). On June 12 he was a benchwarmer at .500; he hit .769 since and is now the Slamma Jammas' engine at .719.
• Five debuts, led by Scott Naylor: .700 on 10 at-bats, instantly round 9's best pick (Section 4). The others: Daniel Dockstader Marvins (.533), Steven Dockstader (.500), Nathan Hammon (.500), Angeline Williams (.167).

Dynasty of the week

The Dynasty Ledger's nine families, measured only on this period's at-bats.

The records board

First entries in the weekly record book. Future editions get to chase them.

• Hottest week (min 10 ABs): Cuervo Timpson, .957 — June 12 → July 3.
• Coldest week (min 10 ABs): Dorothy Dockstader, .154 — June 12 → July 3.
• Best team week: Youre Saying Theres A Chance (Horatio's team), .632.
• Best family week: Knudson, .700.
• Biggest workload week: Taylor Timpson, +30 at-bats.

Bookkeeping

• The player listed as "Williams, Moroni" on June 12 appears as "Musser, Moroni" on July 3 — same person, same team and draft slot (Pliggas (Claude's team), round 6). Week-over-week comparisons join players on (team, draft pick), never on names.
• The full June 12 edition is preserved as it stood: read it here →

Team Sheets

By reader request: every team's draft-day coup and regret — the best and worst pick on the roster relative to round expectation — and who ran hottest and coldest since June 12.

Best and worst pick, per team

• The Playas (Michael's team) are the only team whose "worst" pick out-hits their "best" pick. Michael Williams is at .600 — but for a first-rounder that's −1.59 z; Amie Z Barlow's .455 out of round 12 is +0.64. Value is relative to the price you paid.
• Four teams found their best value in rounds 11–12 (Pliggas (Claude's team), Slamma Jammas (Boyds Daniel's team), Ellites (Elliot's team), Playas (Michael's team)) — and all four sit in the bottom half of the standings. Late-round gold doesn't save a draft when the early rounds miss.
• The Danites' extremes are both Naylors: Scott (R9, .700, +1.42) and Brenda (R8, .100, −2.22). One family, one round apart, opposite ends of the board.

Hot and cold bat of the week, per team

• Yes, Lexi Timpson hit 1.167. Seven new hits arrived on six new at-bats — the site appears to have revised her early-season line upward. We report what the ledger says.
• Cuervo (.957) and Curtis Knudson (.867) both did it from round 2, which collectively hit .675 — the hardest round to stand out from this period after round 1 (.756).
• Anson Johnson quietly smoked his round: .857 for the week against round 9's collective .480 — the biggest genuine gap over round expectation this week (Lexi's 1.167 being an accounting artifact).

The Verdict — Who Justified Their Pick

Averages flatter part-timers, so this section judges every player on value: net hits above what a league-average bat would produce in the same at-bats — (avg − .562) × ABs. A .750 hitter over 30 at-bats (+5.6) outranks a .780 hitter over 20 (+4.4): production you actually showed up for. Rank all 144 by value, deal them back out twelve per round, and every player gets a true round — where the stats say they should have been drafted. The verdict: 82 of 144 players have justified their pick (true round at or better than where they actually went), and 22 were priced exactly right. Shortstops — the league's premium defensive position — are tagged · SS: their price bought a glove this ledger can't see.

Priced exactly right

True round = drafted round. These 22 picks are the draft's honest transactions — the captains knew precisely what they were buying.

• The top of the draft is honest. The first four names — Sefton Dockstader, Gideon Hammon, Horatio Williams, Claude Timpson — are all round-1 picks, all team captains, and all shortstops. Those four picks are the league's scouting at its most accurate.
• So is the bottom. Five of the 22 are round-12 picks who produced exactly like round-12 picks. Correctly pricing a weak bat is still correct pricing.
• The Playas (Michael's team) priced three picks exactly right (Nathan Knudson, John Barlow Jr, Leslie Williams) — their scouting was fine; the talent pool was the problem.

The bargains — justified it and then some

The eight players whose true round beats their draft slot by the most. Every one of them justified their pick several times over.

• Maureen Williams and Sean Hammon got eight free rounds each — in pick terms, Maureen went #130 and ranks #34 (a 96-slot climb, the draft's longest) and Sean went #140 and ranks #48.
• The round-6 bump, quantified: Wesley Williams, Seth Timpson, Charles Williams, and Noah Dockstader were all sixth-round picks — and all four produced like first-rounders. Four true-R1 seasons were sitting on the board in round 6.

The bills that came due — didn't justify it

The eight players whose stats say they went furthest above their true round. Volume matters here too: several of these verdicts come with a season's worth of evidence, not a cold streak.

• Kayden Timpson is the draft's biggest bill: pick #29 in, league #127 out — a 98-slot fall, the longest move in either direction, on a full 32 at-bats.
• Treyton Timpson is the most-litigated verdict on the page. A .511 average isn't terrible — but he's carried it across 45 at-bats, the second-heaviest workload in the league, so the sample isn't going to rescue him. Round-3 price, round-9 production.
• Notice what's missing: shortstops. Not one of the eight is an SS — the league's premium-position picks have mostly earned their slots at the plate too. Where a shortstop's bat does lag his price (Michael Williams at R1, Ephraims Daniel at R4), remember the pick also bought the best glove on the field. This table only sees the bat.

The Dream Team

One player per round — a draft-legal roster — choosing the best value at every slot, not the best average. This team would out-produce a league-average roster by +53.8 net hits.

• Round 4 is the volume principle in action: the Dream Team takes Taylor Timpson (.680 across 50 at-bats, +5.9) over Ben Williams (.750 across 20, +3.8). Seventy points of average don't cover thirty missing trips to the plate.
• It has a real shortstop — Claude Timpson at round 1 edges Gideon (+9.8 vs +9.2) for the anchor spot, with Cuervo (+10.6, the league's most valuable bat) arriving in round 2.
• Eight of twelve teams place someone; the Diamonds and Dirtbags (Jeremy's team), Lefty Looseys (Sefton's team), Pure Breads (Caleb's team), and Pliggas (Claude's team) place two each. Nobody from the Fellowship of the Swing (Stafford's team), Ellites (Elliot's team), Playas (Michael's team), or Danites (Ephraims Daniel's team) makes the cut.
• Round 10's best value pick is still below average — Jayla Dockstader at −0.1. That's not a knock on Jayla; it's the whole verdict on round 10.
• And it's a legal roster. League rules require two women on every team — the Dream Team complies without any help from the rulebook: Maureen Williams and Jayla Dockstader are here on pure value.

The Captain's Mirror

The draft ran in the order below and snaked every round — and each captain had to draft themselves somewhere. This table is the stats' verdict on their self-scouting: the pick they spent on themselves versus the round their season is actually worth.

• The draft opened with six consecutive captains taking themselves. Picks #1 through #6 — Gideon, Horatio, Sefton, Elliot, Claude, Michael — are the six shortstop captains, straight off the board. The first pick of the draft that wasn't a captain came at #7, when Seth Cawley took Sam Guy instead of himself.
• Five captains priced themselves exactly right — Gideon, Horatio, Sefton, Claude, and Jeremy Dockstader Marvins. That includes Gideon Hammon using the #1 overall pick on himself and currently ranking league #3. The audacity checks out.
• Only two captains undersold themselves: Seth Cawley (waited until pick #55; his bat is worth a round more) and Stafford Hammon (took himself in round 3; his season grades true round 2). Stafford's team is in first place — humility scouts well.
• The generous self-evaluations: Michael Williams (round 1 for a true-R5 bat) and the two Daniels (−3 apiece) — though Michael and Ephraims Daniel are shortstops, and a captain who prices his own glove gets some benefit of the doubt in this ledger.
• The snake has geometry. Drafting last, Jeremy's team picks in back-to-back pairs at every turn (#12–#13, #36–#37…), while Gideon's team waits 22 picks between selections. Neither seat was an excuse: they finished 2nd and 4th on the report card.

The full docket — all 144 verdicts

Every player in the league in true draft order — pick #1 through pick #144, snake turns included (even rounds run in reverse team order). True Rd is where the stats say you belonged, Gap is the verdict — green justified the pick with rounds to spare, = priced exactly right, red should have gone later — and League # is your value rank out of 144. The heavier lines start a new round.

• The longest climb started at pick #140. Sean Hammon went five picks from the end of the draft and sits at league #48 — one spot inside the top third — with Maureen Williams (R11) fourteen spots higher at #34. The floor of the draft produced two top-50 bats.
• The longest fall is Kayden Timpson: a third-round price producing at #127 of 144 — bottom-twenty output on a full 32 at-bats. Jason W Timpson (R2, #97) fell deeper than anyone drafted in the first two rounds.
• Round 1, read top to bottom, is a defense of round 1. The four shortstop captains own the league's top ranks (#2, #3, #6, #9), nine of twelve first-rounders sit in the true top two rounds, and even the worst case — Heber Williams at #62, first-round price for sixth-round production — never left the top half of the league.
• The basement has a moral. #144 Dorothy Dockstader cost a tenth-round pick and #143 Karen Hammon a ninth — while #142 Isabel Dockstader, the only one of the three actually priced for the basement, counts as a perfectly scouted pick. Being last isn't the sin; being last at a mid-draft price is.
• And the very last pick of the draft justified it. Becky Wood — pick #144 — grades out at true round 11, a green +1, out-producing 22 players drafted above her. The Good Guys' final act of draft day was, technically, a bargain.
• The docket is zero-sum by construction: 60 players climbed above their slot, 62 fell below it, 22 landed exactly. Every climb is somebody else's fall — a captain's job isn't avoiding red rows, it's making fewer of them than the other eleven captains.

The Round Rooms

The full class photo for every draft round — all twelve players, not just the valedictorian and the dropout. z compares a player to their round-mates over the full season; This Week is the adjusted rate on at-bats taken between June 12 and July 3, with period at-bats in parentheses (mind the small samples).

Round 1

Round 2

Round 3

Round 4

Round 5

Round 6

Round 7

Round 8

Round 9

Round 10

Round 11

Round 12

• Round 1 hit .756 as a group this period — the best round of the week. The blue-chippers are pulling away, not regressing.
• Round 10 remains the graveyard: worst round of the week (.402) and the only round without a single .600 season bat.
• Round 11 keeps being weird: it out-hit rounds 10 and 12 again this period (.479 vs .402 and .434), defending the odd season-long edge it holds over both.

The Dynasty Ledger

Because no CP Softball document is complete without acknowledging that this league is nine families in a trench coat — 117 of 144 players share just nine surnames.